Can Eddie Nketiah replace Gabriel Jesus?

Arsenal come back to the Premier League with a dilemma. Their star striker Gabriel Jesus has sustained a knee injury which will keep him out until late February and they now need to make a crucial decision. Should they gamble on Eddie Nketiah or blow some cash in the transfer market?

Introduction

Going into the West Ham game on Boxing Day, it was widely expected that Arteta would start Eddie at striker due to lack of options and that was what he did. In the West Ham fixture he had a decent game which showed his good movement and his fantastic goal.But he did have below standard decision making and his ability on the ball was mediocre.

His game against Brighton was another good performance with Eddie bagging another decent goal and was regularly touching the ball. He took less shots and may not have been just as on it in the game but still had a good game that displayed how clinical he was.

This game has not assured his place in the starting 11 but it at least bought him a better rapport with the Arsenal higher-ups. The game should inspire more belief in the striker but his next couple games against Newcastle and Tottenham should give the Arsenal board a better idea of if they should stick with Nketiah as their starting striker or if they should sign a replacement.

At first glance Nketiah’s stats this season aren’t the most inspiring, he has only scored 5 goals in 22 appearences. But a deeper look paints a different story, Eddie has only started 9 out of his 21 games and has only played 929 minutes. Nketiah has scored a goal every 185 minutes. This record certainly isn’t the best but it also shows that he is a decent goal scorer who has the ability to put the ball in the back of the net.

*However, looking at last season Nketiah did score 10 in 27 games with 5 coming from the Premier League. In the Prem he averaged 0.55 goals per 90 and 0.41 XG per 90 which puts him in the 96th percentile for both. It shows Nketiah’s goal rate is fantastic and by outperforming his expected goals it shows his impressive finishing ability.

He averages 2.48 shots per 90 and has a shot conversion rate of 20.8%. Nketiah is known for his poaching ability and the threat he holds when he's in the box. Nketiah’s shooting ability has never been in question but the problem is his decision making and his composure. He’s often seen waiting too long to release the ball or running himself into a dead end. The English U21 is a quality finisher but he needs to work on the technical side of his game.

Another part of Nketiah’s game that has been heavily criticised is his on the ball ability. Nketiah usually isn’t involved in the build-up and isn’t a very accurate passer of the ball. Nketiah averages 23.15 passes per 90 with a 78% success rate, which puts him in the bottom 20% percent of Premier League strikers. In Arteta’s system the No.9 is not the traditional fox in the box type of player, with the player tasked with the instruction to drop deeper to collect the ball and run at the defenders.

Also, the striker is expected to interchange with fluidity with the wide men constantly switching positions to attack the opposition. Nketiah hasn’t shown this to be in his repertoire. For Eddie to gain the confidence of Arteta and the board as the sole replacement for Jesus, he must improve his passing ability and must become more involved in the build-up.

Conclusion

I believe that for £100k a week, Nketiah must be regarded highly by the Arsenal board and staff, so it would be surprising if he wasn't given a chance to impress. In the past two games, he has started and scored showing his ruthlessness in front of goal. Nketiah may not be an exact replacement for Jesus but he does offer the ability that when put in front of goal he will score. If Nketiah can keep up his good form against Newcastle and Spurs, then I think Arsenal should hold back on signing another forward and just give Nketiah a chance to shine in the abscense of Gabriel Jesus.